The significant rise in non-farm payrolls announced from the US today did not trigger a rise in 2 and 10-year interest rates. This may be due to the fact that other employment data did not point to an acceleration in the US economy.
Looking at other components of employment data, unemployment rose from 4.1% to 4.2%, while the employment participation rate fell from 62.7% to 62.5% (Chart 2, purple and green lines, respectively).
On the other hand, the rise in underemployment from 7.7 percent to 7.8 percent suggests that the employment data as a whole are not that strong (Chart 2, orange line).
In light of these data, the decline of the dollar is not only a normal thing but also in line with the Fed policy and the recent rise in stock market indices. Thus, the current process can be predicted as dollar negative – for now. It’s “for now” because risk indicators such as Deutsche Bank Currency Volatility Index is on the rise.
Conclusion: Assuming that the decline in the dollar may not be sustained, the rises in the EURUSD parity can be considered as a short-term short-selling opportunity